What Are the Chances That Trump's Gaza Plan Will Be Effective?

Hamas's conditional endorsement toward the US president's Gaza deal last Friday was met with worldwide approval representing the nearest the two warring sides have got in two years toward stopping the war in Gaza.

How Near Is a Deal?

The Palestinian faction's qualified support of the Trump plan marks the nearest mediators have got in recent months to a comprehensive termination to the war inside the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, they are still distant from a settlement.

The US president's multi-point initiative to stop the war specifies that Hamas free all hostages in three days, surrender ruling power to a transnational authority led by the US president, and lay down its weapons. As compensation, Israeli forces would step-by-step pull back its troops from the Gaza Strip and return over one thousand detainees.

The deal would also bring a boost of assistance to Gaza, parts of which are facing food shortages, and reconstruction funds to the region, which has been nearly completely destroyed.

The organization gave consent to three points: the freeing of every captive, the handing over of control and the pullout of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. The group stated the rest of the agreement must be negotiated alongside other Palestinian parties, since it forms part of a “collective national stance”.

In practice, this implies the group seeks further negotiations on the thornier parts of the Trump deal, specifically the request for its disarmament, and a clear schedule regarding Israeli troop pullout.

Where and When Will Negotiations Take Place?

Delegates have traveled to the Egyptian capital to finalize specifics to bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas.

Negotiations will start on Monday and are expected to bring results over the next several days, be they successful or not.

The US president shared a picture of a map of Gaza on Saturday night that showed the line up to which Israeli forces should withdraw stating if the group consents to the terms, that the ceasefire would start immediately. Donald Trump is keen to end the war as it comes its second anniversary and before the Nobel committee announces who receives the Nobel Peace Prize on 10 October, which is an extensively reported obsession for him.

Benjamin Netanyahu announced an agreement to secure the return of Israeli captives back home should preferably take place in the coming days.

What Gaps Persist?

Both Hamas and Israel have been cautious their positions going into the talks.

The group has consistently refused to lay down its arms during previous talks. It has provided no word on if its stance has changed regarding this issue, even as it broadly accepts to Trump’s plan, with conditions. The US and Israel have made it clear that there is little wiggle room on the disarmament issue and are resolved to pin Hamas down through firm wording in any agreement moving forward.

The militant faction also said it agreed to handing over authority in Gaza to an expert-led governing force, as specified in the US proposal. But, in a statement, Hamas specified it would accept a Gaza-based technocratic governing body, rather than the global authority proposed by Trump in its plan.

The Israeli government has also sought to keep the matter regarding its military pullout ambiguous. Just hours following the announcement of the US proposal in a joint press conference in the US capital last week, Netanyahu released a video assuring the Israeli public that soldiers would stay in most of Gaza.

Last Saturday evening, Netanyahu reiterated that troops would stay in Gaza, saying that hostages would be returned as the Israeli military would remain “deep inside the strip”.

The prime minister's stance appears to conflict against the requirement in Trump’s plan that Israeli forces fully withdraw from Gaza. The group will demand reassurances that Israel will completely leave and that should the group gives up its weapons, Israeli forces will not return to Gaza.

Negotiators will have to bridge these gaps, obtaining clear, strict language regarding giving up weapons from Hamas. They must also demonstrate to Hamas that Israel will genuinely pull out from the territory and that there are international guarantees that will force the Israeli state to comply to the terms of the deal.

The differences could be reconciled, and the US will certainly pressure both parties to achieve a deal. However, negotiations have come near to an agreement previously abruptly failing multiple times in the past two years, leaving both parties cautious of declaring victory prior to a formal agreement.